The Global Economy Will Have Five Winners Post-Coronavirus
There’s high speculation as to which economies will emerge strong and which ones will perish especially now that the second wave of coronavirus is forcing some economies to shut down again, due to the rising number of new cases.
Five countries are poised to be big winners after the pandemic but there’s a looming threat of a dark horse on the horizon, according to a report by Entrepreneur Ruchir Sharman published on Times of India.
The most crucial element of the process of determining a winner he wrote, is the global environment at a particular time, which will set the tone for new rules in a post-pandemic era.
As Ruchir states, prior to the Coronavirus the global economy was slowly disintegrating and moving away from globalization to self-reliance. Even countries that have benefited the most from globalisation like China and India were already starting to focus more on internal growth like in North Korea.
“The pandemic is accelerating a broad turn inward that began after the global financial crisis of 2008. Globalisation had already given way to de-globalisation, with cross border flows of goods and money in decline before the pandemic hit.”
As a catalyst, the coronavirus pandemic has seen the world consider some solutions that were unimaginable just a year ago. The level of public debt, which was already getting to a breaking point before the outbreak, budget deficit, and the unlocking of a new level of the virtual economy has shown that the world economy is ready for an eminent reset.
Germany Is the Leader of The Big Five
According to Ruchir, his list of 10 Rules of Successful Nations will fit in perfectly to determine the five winners of the digital economic era of de-globalisation.
“Geography and trade, state competence, debt, and investment, will have the most impact on national success.”
The five nations that will rise will depend on four major strengths, which are a strong domestic market as seen currently during the pandemic, coronavirus infection and mortality rates, total government debt and deficit, digital sophistication, and level of investment in research and development.
The countries that are going to emerge as the strongest past coronavirus will be led by Germany, followed by Finland, Switzerland, Vietnam, Taiwan, and Russia.
Worldwide Reshuffle to Shake Off Current Economic Giants
Notably, the US and China as the world’s leading economies will not make the cut according to Ruchir. The uninspiring economic news atmosphere surrounding is a result of the heavy debts and doubts in citizen’s minds about their governments’’ handling of the pandemic.
India too will not be a big winner due to long-standing feelings of disappointment towards the government, but its vast domestic consumerism network will ranks it higher.
Ruchir stated that the unlikeliness of the list depicts how different the new world is going to be, where two countries as different as German and Russia will have equal voices on a global discussion about inclusivity.
“To thrive economies will need a strong defense against the pressures of deglobalisation, debt, and meddling governments, coupled with an offense capable of exploiting the opportunities in the booming digital economy.”
