EURUSD and NZDUSD daily view with dollar consolidation

Looking at the chart on the daily time frame, we see that EURUSD is still around 1.17500 today. We still expect to see what happens around the 20-day moving average. We currently have support at 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.16950 and the bottom trend line. Now for the bullish scenario, we need EURUSD to climb above MA20 to get a positive consolidation for further euro recovery. On the graph, we can form a falling channel, and based on it; we see that we are bouncing off the bottom line and that we should see growth up to the top line of this falling channel. An additional obstacle for us is the 50-day moving average in the zone, around 1.18000. If we surpass it, then we can expect EURUSD to climb to 23.6% Fibonacci level to 1.19500. We expect a decline of the 20-day running average with negative consolidation for the bearish scenario, which will continue this downward trend within this channel. Below we have support at 1.16000, lows from November 2020.

NZDUSD chart analysis

Looking at the NZDUSD chart on the daily time frame, we see that the pair has recovered in the last three days. We have climbed from 0.68000 to the current 0.69500. What is very important to us is the obstacle in the 20-day and 50-day moving average. For the bullish trend, the target on this time frame is 0.71000 place of the previous high, which they failed to continue higher on the chart, and that place coincides with our 200-day moving average. The psychological level awaits us at 0.70000, and it matches our 23.6% Fibonacci level. For the bearish scenario, we expect resistance in moving averages at the current level or wait up in the 0.71000 zone, and then a new pullback within this channel, between these two trend lines.

Market overview

German business confidence weakened for the second month in a row in August, mainly due to significantly less optimism in the expectations of companies, the results of the Ifo Institute’s research showed on Wednesday.

The business climate index fell to 99.4 in August from 100.7 in July. The result was expected to moderate moderately to 100.4.

Expectations among companies deteriorated to a six-month low in August. In contrast, the companies rated their current situation somewhat better than in the previous month.

The current situation indicator advanced to 101.4 from 100.4 in the previous month. The expected level was 100.8.

On the other hand, the index of expectations fell to 97.5 in August from 101.0 a month ago and remained below the economists’ forecast of 100.0.

Bottlenecks in the supply of intermediate products in production and concerns about the growing number of infections burden the economy said Ifo president Clemens Fuest.

The second consecutive drop in the confidence index provides additional evidence that Germany’s recovery is losing some momentum, in part due to supply chain difficulties in the manufacturing sector and the Delta variant, said Andrew Kenningham, an economist at Capital Economics.

 GDP should continue to grow sharply in the third quarter, the economist said.

In production, the business climate weakened significantly in August. Estimates of the current situation have fallen but have remained in positive territory. Meanwhile, the outlook for the coming months has narrowed significantly, as the expectation indicator has fallen to its lowest level since November 2020.

The business climate indicator in the service sector also declined in August. Optimism about future business development has faded. However, the companies still rated their current situation as much better than in July.

The mood index also fell in trade. Companies were less satisfied with the current business situation, and their expectations became even more pessimistic.