EURUSD, the Dollar index, GBPUSD and USDRUB for March 14
EURUSD chart analysis
Pair EURUSD is still in the bearish trend. We failed to form a break above 1.10000, and now we have a new retreat towards the previous support zone at 1.09000. Following the moving averages, we see that others are moving to the bearish side, directing us towards lower support zones. If the 1.09000 zone does not last, the next potential support is 1.08000, the minimum from March 7. Conversely, a EURUSD break above 1.10000 would gain support in moving averages, and after that, we would continue this smaller bullish trend. The first bullish target is at 1.11000, last week’s high. The crisis in Ukraine is putting a lot of pressure on the euro because there has been an increase in energy prices and thus an increase in inflation. Rising inflation without a response from the ECB leads to weakening the EU currency.
Dollar index chart analysis
The dollar index once again tested the zone around 92,300 during the Asian session. We now have a pullback index, and we are looking for support in the zone around 98.50, a place of potential support for MA20 and MA50 moving averages. If a break occurs below, our target zone is around 97,725, a place of previous support. Our MA200 is at 97,000 and runs parallel to the bottom trend line. For the bullish option, we need to continue the positive consolidation and break above 99,500 so that we can try to climb to 100,000. This week is full of economic news. The main news is the Fed’s report about the interest rate on Wednesday. It is estimated that the Fed will increase its interest rate from the current 0.25% to 0.50%. Such a move could strengthen the dollar against other currencies.
GBPUSD chart analysis
The pound is still in negative territory, and the pair is still consolidating in the zone 1,30000-1,30500. If we do not find support here soon, we will see that the withdrawal is below 1.30000. Our first bearish target is 1.29500, then at 1.29000. Conversely, for the bullish option, the pair must find support here and try to move to 1.31000. The additional resistance in the zone around 1.31000 is the MA20 moving average. If we see the GBPUSD break above, our next potential resistance is at 1.32000, with resistance in the MA50 moving average. The critical zone for a more concrete transition to the bullish side is the resistance zone 1.32750-1.33000.
USDRUB chart analysis
Over the past week, the USDRUB pair has been moving in a parallel channel with a slight view of the bearish side. The Russian ruble managed to recover after falling to an all-time low of 154,200. We are now testing support at 110,000, and there is a chance to see a new bullish momentum within this channel. And if that happens, then we look at whether we will see the formation of a new lower high on the chart or a break above the upper trend line. We notice that we have fallen below the MA200 moving average, and this may be additional pressure on the USDRUB and an obstacle to the bullish impulse. We need a drop below the bottom line for the bearish option, and then we are looking for support at the 100,000 psychological level.
Market overview
EU governments should keep their fiscal positions “reactive” in dealing with the current crisis in Ukraine with targeted measures for households and companies, said French Finance Minister Bruno Le Mer.
Le Mer, who will chair a meeting with other EU finance ministers in Brussels on Tuesday, said it was time for a joint “targeted, swift and temporary” economic response to the consequences of the Ukrainian crisis.
The suspension of the EU fiscal regulations by the end of the year, caused by the covid crisis, gave all the flexibility needed to finance emergency support for households and companies that depend on gas or are exposed to the Russian market, he said.
He added that the sanctions imposed on Russia due to its invasion of Ukraine were effective and forced an 8% drop in the Russian economy.
