EURUSD and GBPUSD: Fell for the First Time This Year

• Yesterday, the euro made another big pullback to the 0.99000 level during the US session.
• Yesterday, the pound fell for the first time this year to the 1.15000 level.
• German exports fell in July for the first time in the previous four months, and imports also recorded an unexpected decline.

EURUSD chart analysis

Yesterday, the euro made another big pullback to the 0.99000 level during the US session. A recovery followed this to the 0.99500 level. The euro continued its recovery during the Asian trading session, and we are now at the 1.00000 level. We need further positive consolidation to the 1.00500 resistance level to continue bullish options. The moving averages are on the bullish side and provide us with support for the potential recovery of the euro. The next target is at the 1.01000 level; the last time we were there was on August 18. We need a negative consolidation and a drop below the 0.99800 level and moving averages for a bearish option. After that, we could expect a further pullback of EURUSD to lower levels. Potential lower targets are 0.99500 and 0.99000 levels.

GBPUSD chart analysis

Yesterday, the pound fell for the first time this year to the 1.15000 level; the last time we were at this point was in March 2020, at the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic. Today we see a slight recovery to the 1.15700 level, and our target is the 1.16000 level. To continue the bullish option, we need a continuation of this positive consolidation and a break above the 1.16000 level. If we manage to hold above, it would be very positive for the struggling pound. Potential higher targets are 1.16500 and 1.17000 levels. We need a new negative consolidation and pullback to yesterday’s 1.15000 low for a bearish option. If the dollar continues to strengthen due to the global recession, a break below is certain, and we could see it soon. Potential lower targets are 1.14500 and 1.14000 levels.

Market Overview

German exports fell in July for the first time in the previous four months, and imports also recorded an unexpected decline. Exports decreased by 2.1% on a monthly basis, and imports unexpectedly decreased by 1.5%. As a result, the trade surplus fell to 5.4 billion euros from 6.2 billion euros in the previous month.