Amid the complex interplay of supply and demand, the oil market has recently experienced a significant shift. The benchmark Brent crude futures market structure saw its most bullish moment since October, with the premium of the first-month contract to the six-month reaching an impressive $4.34 a barrel. This situation, known as backwardation, highlights a tightening supply, signalling strong demand and limited availability. Analysts, traders, and LSEG data collectively point out that Red Sea shipping delays and strategic OPEC+ supply cuts are intensifying pressures on the physical oil markets across Europe and Africa. These factors further elevate the Brent oil market structure and, consequently, oil futures prices.

Central Banks vs. Oil Dynamics: OPEC+’s $80 Strategy

The upward trend in oil prices benefits oil producers and represents a pivotal moment with broad economic implications. A sustained increase in crude prices could elevate costs across the energy, transportation, and manufacturing sectors. This could potentially disrupt recent efforts to curb global inflation. This occurs at a crucial time as major central banks, prepared to cut interest rates, might find their policies in conflict with these market dynamics. However, this trend is a positive development for OPEC+ — a coalition aiming to maintain prices above $80 per barrel to meet budgetary requirements.

2017-Low Inventories Stir Global Oil Volatility

The global oil landscape has undergone a dramatic change. Onshore crude inventories have dropped to their lowest levels since early 2017. This significant reduction has led to a sharp increase in the prices of Nigerian crude. Specifically, the Forcados grade has reached a premium unprecedented since October. In contrast, the Middle East cash crude differentials in Asia have remained stable. This stability starkly contrasts with the volatility seen in Europe and Africa. Such volatility and stability underscore the geographical disparities in market strength.

The U.S. crude market is experiencing a complex situation. It is trying to balance tight supply constraints against fluctuating demand patterns. This balancing act adds further complexity to the global oil narrative.