UK Home Prices Stable in 2023, Beat Downturn Fears

Quick Overview

• UK home prices to remain stable in 2023, defying earlier predictions.
• Interest rate cuts should enhance purchasing affordability.
• London’s property market to outperform national trends.

The UK housing market will face an unexpected period of stability this year, contrary to forecasts made just three months ago. This resilience is largely due to persistent supply constraints coupled with anticipated cuts in interest rates later in the year. A recent Reuters poll highlights this positive outlook, suggesting that British home prices will flatline rather than decline. This is a refreshing shift following a period of slowdown in the property sector, which has seen a revival as mortgage interest rates began to decrease.

UK Home Prices: 3% Growth by 2025, 4% by 2026

Looking ahead, the market’s trajectory appears promising. Firstly, home prices are set to maintain their current levels throughout 2023. Additionally, an expected growth of 3.0% in 2025 and 4.0% in 2026 is anticipated. This forecast aligns with a moderate inflation outlook, which gradually projects rates to decrease over the next three years. Moreover, London, a perennial hotspot for foreign investment, is poised for even stronger growth. Specifically, it is outpacing national averages with a 1.7% increase this year and further gains expected through 2026. Lastly, the current average UK property price is 362,839 pounds. This highlights the affordability challenge for many, especially when considering the necessary downpayment for mortgage acquisition.

European Banks’ Rise Fuels UK Property Market

The broader financial landscape provides context to the housing market’s dynamics. The resurgence of European banks, recovering to over 24% of global revenue in 2023 from a low in 2019–2020, alongside the consistent performance of UK institutions like Barclays and HSBC, underscores a broader trend of financial stability and growth. This banking resurgence bodes well for the property market, potentially enhancing lending conditions and further supporting home price stability and growth.