Modernising the Bank of England’s Forecasting Approach

Quick Look

• Bernanke recommends modernising BoE’s outdated forecasting tools and techniques.
• Suggests replacing the ‘fan chart’ with multiple scenario analyses for better accuracy.
• Advises against radical changes in publishing interest rate forecasts to avoid policy constraints.
• BoE plans to update data platforms and refine communication strategies soon.

Former Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke has recommended significant changes to the Bank of England‘s (BoE) economic forecasting methods. In an extensive review, Bernanke highlighted outdated tools and technology that have impaired the BoE‘s forecasting accuracy. His advice centres on updating these systems and shifting away from over-reliance on market expectations in interest rate forecasts.

The heart of Bernanke’s critique is the BoE‘s reliance on what he views as outdated forecasting software and communication tools. He explicitly called for the replacement of the BoE‘s ‘fan chart’. This chart currently illustrates potential future paths for inflation and growth under a single assumption framework, which Bernanke argues is too restrictive. Instead, he suggests a more qualitative risk assessment approach and the publication of multiple economic scenarios.

This method would show how changes in interest rates could impact the economy under different conditions. Thereby offering a broader perspective on potential economic outcomes.

This push for modernisation is in response to the BoE’s recent forecasting struggles. Particularly highlighted by its failure to anticipate the sharp inflation spike post-2021. British consumer price inflation exceeded 11% in October 2022, driven by factors such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and pandemic-induced economic bottlenecks. The BoE’s forecasting model struggled under these unprecedented conditions, a shortfall Bernanke deemed “probably inevitable”. Still indicative of the need for more robust forecasting capabilities.

Avoiding Radical Changes While Planning for the Future

Despite advocating for significant updates, Bernanke advised against a radical overhaul of the BoE’s approach to publishing interest rate forecasts. Unlike the U.S. Federal Reserve’s ‘dot plot’ system, Bernanke recommends that the BoE should continue refraining from publishing its own rate forecasts. He believes such forecasts could be misinterpreted as commitments, thus constraining policymakers. However, he acknowledges that this issue may need revisiting in the future. Suggesting that a balanced, single projection might be more suitable than a ‘dot plot’ approach.

Governor Andrew Bailey has indicated that improvements to the Bank of England’s data platforms are underway, with significant updates expected within the next year. Further steps to refine communication strategies are also expected by the end of the year, which could include some of Bernanke’s recommendations.

Bernanke’s review serves as a wake-up call for the Bank of England, highlighting crucial areas for improvement in its economic forecasting approach. While he steers clear of suggesting immediate radical changes, his recommendations pave the way for a more adaptable, modern, and accurate forecasting framework. This approach not only aligns with global best practices but also positions the BoE to manage future economic uncertainties better. The coming years will likely see these changes being implemented, marking a new era of economic forecasting for the UK’s central bank.