What Would Happen if Kim Jong Un Was Assassinated?

It is not a secret that North Korea is the most isolated country in the world. Kim Jong Un became North Korea’s leader in 2011. Few world leaders are as closely watched and as shrouded in mystery as North Korea’s leaders.

Political as well as diplomatic intrigue has surrounded this North Korean dictator since he took power more than a decade ago. His family has controlled the northern part of the Korean peninsula for a long time.

The information is tightly controlled in the country. As a result, the vast majority of North Koreans do not have the luxury of reading or watching foreign media outlets. So, they rely entirely on the country’s state media.

There have been frequent rumors that the North Korean dictator is in poor health. However, nobody knows for sure who would become the country’s leader if Kim Jong Un dies – and that is precisely the problem. Authorities in South Korea and the United States are closely monitoring the situation. However, even they are not aware of all the factors.

So, we have to consider several options.

His assassination would leave the country facing an unplanned succession for the first time.

The current leader’s father Kim Jong Il had been preparing to succeed his father, Kim Il Sung, for two decades when he became the country’s leader in 1994.

North Korea’s next leader Kim Jong Un had several years to prepare before his father, Kim Jong Il’s death in 2011. However, the current Korean leader Kim Jong Un is too young to have cultivated his own successor, and his only known son is too young. If the country’s current leader gets killed, it is uncertain who will prevail in the country’s “Game of Thrones.”

North Korean Dictator Kim Jong Un and his potential successor

The most likely outcome is the North Korean dictator’s sister, Kim Yo Jong, would take over. The state deifies the Kims, and no other family member is as well-positioned.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un already had his half-brother and uncle killed. The country’s leader has an older brother, Kim Jong Chul, but his brother was already passed over for the leadership by Kim Jong Il because Kim Jong Chul was considered too weak.

We should also mention Kim Jong Un’s uncle Kim Pyong Il who returned to North Korea several years ago. The current leader’s uncle served as a top diplomat in a number of countries for 40 years. However, he is more likely to be an adviser to Kim Yo Jong than the ruler himself.

She has been one of Kim’s most trusted advisers. The only question is whether, in a male-dominated society, the elites would support a young woman as supreme leader. Before and after the Korean war, only males ruled the country. If Kim Yo Jong prevail, she would likely preserve her brother’s policies of limited economic liberalization, an expansion of its nuclear weapons, and a diplomatic offensive to gain greater international recognition and relaxation of sanctions.

North Korean regime and its Vice Marshal Choe Ryong Hae

As we already discussed the dictator’s family members who have the chance to replace him, we can move on to Choe Ryong Hae. People who are not familiar with the North Korean regime may find it hard to understand his chances. However, he an influential figure in North Korea.

If Kim Yo Jong fails to secure power and leadership passes outside the ruling family for the first time, the most likely successor would be the Vice Marshal Choe Ryong Hae, a Politburo member and vice chairman of the Workers Party of Korea.

Choe Ryong Hae’s family is close to the country’s ruler. Moreover, he has an incentive to fight for power rather than support the next Kim family member in line.

When King Jong Un became the country’s leader, he executed the second and third most powerful members of the North Korean regime. Furthermore, Vice Marshal Choe Ryong Hae has been purged in the past. So, he may conclude that the only way to stay alive is to take over.

The least likely but most dangerous scenario at the same time is that no one emerges as Kim Jong Un’s successor, and instead, several leaders grapple for power for a protracted period.