Russia’s Oil Might “Never Return”
Instead, Russian oil and gas revenues will fall by more than half, from $75B in 2017 to less than $30B in 2030. And, as Europe rapidly shifts to supplies from the United States and the Middle East, Russia’s global share will continue to shrink. That’s a startling shift for Putin, whose country supplied 20% of the world’s fossil fuels until last year.
The crisis has caused widespread concern among millions whose energy bills have skyrocketed in the last year. Nonetheless, according to the IEA report, oil supermajors have received a $2T windfall. The five Big Oil companies—ExxonMobil, BP, Shell, TotalEnergies, and Chevron should report a $50.7B third-quarter profit, slightly lower than their all-time high the previous quarter.
Indeed, the IEA believes that this year’s seismic events may prompt countries to accelerate their energy transition because EVs, as well as solar and wind power, are far less vulnerable to upheavals caused by war and sanctions. It is unclear whether a global recession will cause governments to reduce their investments in renewable energy. The Global Wind Energy Council represents companies from 80 countries. It said the IEA report showed how the global oil and gas markets—concentrated in a handful of countries—had been “used and abused” over the past year.
British Oil Major Shell’s Buyback Program
Shell reported a third-quarter profit on Thursday, but lower refining and trading revenues ended the company’s streak of record quarterly earnings.
Shell reported adjusted earnings of $9.45B for the three months ending September 30, meeting analyst expectations of $9.5B. The company earned $4.1B in adjusted earnings over the same period last year and a whopping $11.5B in the second quarter of 2022.
The oil giant said it planned to raise its dividend per share by about 15% in the fourth quarter of 2022, with the dividend being paid out in March 2023.
Earlier this month, Shell warned that falling refining and chemicals margins and weak gas trading could hurt third-quarter earnings.
According to the company, an increase in global product offerings and lower gas trading revenue contributed to a decline in refining margins in the third quarter.
Sawan, a dual Lebanese-Canadian national, has worked at Shell for 25 years, holding positions in downstream retail and various commercial projects.
Europe Gas Prices Rebound
Wholesale gas prices in the United Kingdom and the Netherlands rose mostly on Thursday morning, recovering slightly from losses earlier in the week and drawing some support from unplanned outages in the United Kingdom, but drivers remained mostly bearish.
The Dutch November contract TRNLTTFMc1 rose €2.35 to €102.10 per megawatt-hour (MWh). Traders said an unscheduled break in the UK mainland helped flatten UK prices, and there was a bit of a rebound from this week’s decline.
However, demand in Europe and the United Kingdom remains weak due to higher-than-normal temperatures and reduced industrial demand. The supply of liquefied natural gas is also stable.
According to the most recent weather forecasts, temperatures will remain above normal until at least mid-November.
Wind output should also be higher than normal in the coming days. Wind energy typically reduces the demand for gas from power plants.
Moreover, wind generation in the United Kingdom reached a new high of 19.94 gigatonnes yesterday.
The benchmark contract CFI2Zc1 in the European carbon market increased by 0.75 euros to 76.54 euros per tonne.
