What to Watch out For in The Oil Market

Oil prices fell slightly on Friday; little change should come for the week as a planned European embargo on Russian oil offset investor fears over decreasing demand.

Brent futures for July were down 10 cents, or 0.1 percent, to $111.94 a barrel at 0920 GMT. At $109.66 a barrel, the more actively traded WTI contract for July (CLc2) was down 0.23 cents. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned Asian economies to be wary of monetary tightening spillover risks.

Outlook on Oil Market

According to IMF Deputy Managing Director Kenji Okamura, Asian nations faced a decision between sustaining development with greater stimulus or removing it to stabilize debt and inflation. The Bank of Japan’s approach is at odds with a worldwide trend toward monetary tightening; however, central banks in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia recently boosted interest rates. In a client letter, SPI Asset Management Managing Director Stephen Innes wrote, “If U.S. GDP data continues to sour, oil prices might become trapped in the negative stock market feedback cycle.”

According to a survey on car miles from the Federal Highway Administration, Americans were going back behind the wheel despite increasing gasoline prices.

The European Union is trying to agree on a planned ban on Russian crude imports; it contains exemptions for EU countries that rely heavily on Russian oil, such as Hungary. “More Russian oil import decreases will make it easier for Germany to phase out Russian crude and product imports sooner rather than later.”

Iran, meantime, is finding it more difficult to sell its petroleum now that additional Russian barrels are available; Iranian crude shipments to China fell substantially since the start of the Ukraine conflict as Beijing purchases cheaper Russian barrels.