Ukraine War Could Crash the Global Unemployment Rate

The International Labor Organization (ILO) warned on Monday that the impact of monetary policy tightening in the wake of the Ukraine war on consumption and economic uncertainty would lead to a “severe deterioration” in global employment growth.

According to the U.N. organization, there are indications that the increase in worldwide hours worked witnessed in early 2022 reversed in the second and third quarters. In all, there were 40 million fewer full-time employees between July and September than in the fourth quarter of 2019, regarded as the pre-COVID pandemic baseline level.

How Will the Job Market Look Like in the Q3?

The ILO reported on the World of Work. According to it, given present trends, global job growth will decrease markedly in the fourth quarter of 2022. The ILO blamed the reinstatement of public health regulations and subsequent labor market disruptions in China. Moreover, according to it, the Ukraine crisis and the inflationary pressures will also affect it. Furthermore, the researchers warned that restrictive regulation might harm employment and earnings in advanced and developing nations.

The ILO warned about dwindling job openings and increased unemployment in the coming months. Vacancy growth dropped significantly. ILO added indications that the labor market has significantly cooled in industrialized nations. Gilbert Houngbo, the director-general of the ILO, advocated for several policies. They might help the most vulnerable individuals and organizations. Some policies involve allocating unexpected corporate earnings to income support or employment.

At a news conference in Geneva, they said they could not stress enough the importance of social packages and the necessity to ensure that the monetary tightening to combat inflation is properly dovetailed with social measures.