EUR/USD analysis for May 6, 2021

Looking at the graph on the four-hour time frame, we see that the EUR/USD pair is moving in a descending channel, making certain pullbacks to the channel lines. After bouncing off the top line of the channel, we see a new pullback to the lower levels and descending below the moving averages transitioning into a bearish trend. We find short support at 1.20000 and climb to the current 1.20450.

To continue the bearish trend, we can see the potential resistance in the zone of 1.20500-1.21000 and the continuation of the bearish trend if we see a corresponding consolidation. Then we look again at 1.20000, 38.2% Fibonacci level as an obstacle for further continuation. Below that, we look at 50.0% Fibonacci level as support from MA200 at 1.19250, and even from 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.18720. Looking at the MACD indicator, we see that the blue MACD line crossed over the signal line, creating a current bullish signal, and whether it will take much depends on other factors on the chart.

From the news for the EUR/USD currency pair, we can single out the following:

Address by the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen and her statement: Every second we vaccinate 30 Europeans,
About 200 million doses of vaccines have been distributed in the EU, and The EU supports the US proposal to discuss the waiver of the vaccine patent. As a political figure, such a confident remark can be expected from her, but we will have to wait and see how things progress closer to summer to really recognize this as a “success.” For now, the introduction of the vaccine is certainly on the rise, but it should be reminded that the initial phases were quite messy and disorganized. Retail sales in the eurozone rose for the second month in a row in March, but the growth rate has weakened since February, Eurostat reported today.

Retail sales rose 2.7 percent in March from February when volume rose 4.2 percent. However, the growth rate exceeded the economists’ forecast of 1.5 percent.

Growth in German factory orders accelerated more than expected in March, aided by foreign and domestic demand, Destatis data revealed this morning. Factory orders rose 3 percent on a monthly basis in March, faster than the revised increase of 1.4 percent recorded in February. Orders were expected to increase by 1.7 percent.

Excluding major orders, actual new orders in the manufacturing industry were 1.6 percent higher than the previous month.