EURUSD and GBPUSD take a short break

Dollar

EURUSD and GBPUSD take a short break

EURUSD chart analysis

EURUSD managed to reach new highs in the range of 1.14750-1.14850 during the Asian session, but after that, we have a recent withdrawal to the current 1.14500. The dollar sale continues unabated, pulling the dollar index to new two-month lows near 94.60. The latest US consumer price index data show that consumer price inflation rose further by 0.5% m/m, and 7.0% y/y in December, a new annual record since June 1982. Further inflationary pressures in the US could persist in the first half of 2022 due to several factors driving prices, which will take time to resolve before falling in the second half.

Bullish scenario:

  • We need to continue this positive consolidation, which would climb the pair above 1.15000 and above the upper trend line.
  • The break above can push us further to the next resistance at 1.16000, the previous big EURSUD withdrawal site.
  • In the zone around 1.17000, we find that the resistance is higher because we encounter the MA200 moving average.

Bearish scenario:

  • We need negative consolidation, which will pull the pair from this level towards the previous support zones.
  • Our first potential support is at 1.140000, and then if it doesn’t last, we go down to the next one to the support zones 1.13000-1.13500.
  • Additional potential support at that level is the MA20 and MA50 moving averages.
  • The break below us returns to last year’s low zone around 1.12000.

eurusd-20210114

GBPUSD chart analysis

The British economy grew strongly in November to finally surpass its size just before the country entered its first closure due to COVID-19, official data showed on Friday. The UK economy is 0.7% bigger than in February 2020 before the pandemic. The British industrial sector experienced a solid recovery in November, pushing the pair from the then 1.32000 to the current 1.37000. Now the pair find encounter current resistance at 1.37500, and we have a pullback to 1.37100.

Bullish scenario:

  • We need to continue the current positive consolidation, from which a new bullish impulse will emerge.
  • After that, our first target is the zone around 1.38000, the place where the previous consolidation took place in October.
  • Depending on further consolidation at that level, we can further analyze the movement of the GBPUSD pair.

Bearish scenario:

  • We need a new negative consolidation, which would bring us below 1.37000 again.
  • Further negative consolidation brings us to the first lower support at 1.36000.
  • Additional support at that level is the MA20 moving average.
  • In the zone around 1.35000, we find higher support, and as additional support at that level, the MA50 and MA200 are moving averages.

gbpusd-20210114

Market overview

EU news

The trade balance of the Eurozone recorded a deficit in November due to higher imports, Eurostat data showed on Friday. Exports rose 3 percent on a monthly basis, while imports rose 4.5 percent in November. The trade deficit amounted to a seasonally adjusted 1.3 billion euros, compared to a surplus of 1.8 billion euros in October.

British news

The UK economy grew faster in November, spurred on by service activities, data from the Office for National Statistics showed on Friday. Gross domestic product rose 0.9 percent on a monthly basis in November, faster than the revised expansion of 0.2 percent registered in October and economists’ forecast of 0.4 percent. It is estimated that GDP is above the level before the coronavirus virus pandemic for the first time, by 0.7 percent. In November, there was an increase in production in all sectors, with the production of services being the main driver of GDP growth. Production increased by 1.0 percent compared to last month. The production growth in November was contributed mainly by the processing industry, which grew by 1.1 percent. At the same time, construction production rose 3.5 percent, after falling 1.7 percent in October.

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