EURUSD, GBPUSD new lows in sight

Pair EURUSD today made a new low this year at 1.12480 by re-testing the bottom trend line. Now we have to pay attention to what kind of consolidation the pair will form for the future trend. If the current support lasts, we can only expect to return to the bullish trend within this falling channel.

Bullish scenario:

• EURUSD should make a new positive consolidation and break above 1.13000.
• We then approach the previous EURUSD refraction point at 1.13500, with a moving average MA20 resistance.
• A further bullish impulse climbs us to 1.14000 of the first subsequent resistance, and then we come to the essential zone at 1.14500, a point that can bring us back to a greater recovery.

Bearish scenario:

• We need continued negative consolidation and new testing of this year’s lower low at 1.12480.
• The break below us drops to a new low this year at 1.12000.

GBPUSD chart analysis

Pair GBPUSD again tested the zone at 1.35000 this morning and then made a retreat to the 1.34000 area. We are now moving in the middle around 1.34500. In the MA20 moving average, we expect support to continue on the bullish side. Unlike EURUSD, GBPUSD has not made a new minimum this year.

Bullish scenario:

1. We need a break above 1.35000 to have a safer signal on the chart for potential climbing to higher levels.

• In the 1.35500 zone, the next resistance in the MA50 moving average awaits us, and if we make a break above it, we will probably visit the pre-day high at 1.36000.

Bearish scenario:

• We need a further weakening of the pound and the continuation of the negative consolidation that will direct us to the previous support at 1.34000.
• The break below us descends to the previous low this year at 1.33500.

Market news

The US Department of Transportation announced that it is allocating almost a billion dollars in non-refundable funds for infrastructure. The Biden administration is preparing to dramatically increase the financing of state roads, bridges, railways, transit, and other projects.

Under the $ 1 trillion infrastructure law signed by President Joe Biden, the Department of Transportation will receive $ 660 billion over five years, including $ 210.5 billion to be awarded in the form of competitive grants. Of that, $ 71 billion is for new grant programs.

Japan on Friday unveiled a record spending package of $ 490 billion to mitigate the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, interrupting the global trend of withdrawing stimulus measures in the crisis regime and further burdening its finances.

Spending has risen due to disbursements, including those criticized for being unrelated to the pandemic, such as cash payments to households with young people aged 18 or under, and is likely to lead to additional bond issues this year.

Massive spending would underscore Prime Minister Fumi Kishida’s determination – once considered a fiscal conservative – to focus on economic reflation and redistribution of funds to households.

It will take patience before British inflation returns to the Bank of England’s 2% target, creating an awkward time to be a central banker, BoE chief economist Hugh Peel said on Friday.

“There is no fast fix, and the lack of a fast fix means it will take a little patience,” Peel said at a conference in Bristol organized by the Economic Observatory and the Economic Festival. Peel said he had not decided whether to vote to raise interest rates to 0.25% from 0.1% next month, which is almost certain in the financial markets after data earlier this week showed that inflation had risen to 10 -annual maximum of 4.2%.