EURUSD, GBPUSD, NZDUSD exploring new supports

Yesterday, the pair EURUSD broke below the then support at 1.14500 and fell to 1.13500. Today we have consolidation at that level, and we can expect a shorter recovery if we see a break above 1.14000. Otherwise, longer consolidation can lead to nervousness on the chart and the continuation of the bearish scenario.

Bullish scenario:

• We need positive consolidation and a breakthrough above 1.14000, and our next resistance is the previous consolidation in zone 1.14500.
• Further breakthrough of EURUSD leads us to 1.15000 on MA20 moving average, and above the next resistance, we have a stronger zone 1.15250-1.15500.

Bearish scenario:

• Continuing negative consolidation brings us below 1.13500.
• Our first lower support is at 1.13000 along the lower trend line.
• Here we can expect stronger support, and if the price falls below, then we go down to 1.12500.

GBPUSD chart analysis

Pair GBPUSD found support last week at 1.33500, and after that, we have a positive consolidation that has brought us to the current 1.34450. We are slowly entering a certain bullish trend, and we need additional support in the MA20 moving average that could push GBPUSD.

Bullish scenario:

• We need a break above the MA20 moving average, and further positive consolidation climbs us to 1.35,000 psychological zones of resistance.
• A potential break above can lead us to the next upper resistance in the zone around 1.36000.
• At that level, our additional resistance is the MA50 moving average, and with the break above, we come across the next resistance at 1.37000 with the MA200 moving average.

Bearish scenario:

• We need a rejection from the MA20 moving average with a negative consolidation that steers us towards lower levels.
• The first lower support is at 1.33500 this year’s low, and the break below opens us up to new lows this year.

NZDUSD chart analysis

Pair NZDUSD continues its negative consolidation from mid-October from 0.72185 to the current 0.70135. For the second time, we will test this support zone at 0.70000. The broader picture tells us that value will drag the NZDUSD to the lower support line.

Bullish scenario:

• We need a new positive consolidation and break above 0.70500 as well as above the MA200 moving average.
• Further bullish momentum leads us to resistance in the zone around 0.71000 and MA20 moving average.
• The break above climbs us into the October resistance zone 0.71500-0.72000.

Bearish scenario:

• We need a breakthrough below 0.70000 and MA200 moving average.
• Our potential lower support is at 0.69500, then the next on the bottom line of this larger growing channel.

Market overview

British news

A labor force survey confirmed that the unemployment rate fell 0.1 percentage points to 4.3 percent in the third quarter. The expected rate was 4.4 percent.

“Record job vacancies suggest that the chronic shortage of staff facing companies is intensifying, and that could disrupt the recovery by forcing companies to a longer-term decline in their operating capacity,” said the head of the economy of the British Chamber of Commerce.

At a hearing in the Treasury Committee on Tuesday, the governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, said that the official data on the labor market, which should arrive this month and December, will be crucial for the next decision on the interest rate.

Today’s announcement gave the Bank of England the yellow light. The next labor market announcement on December 14 is likely to provide the green light to raise interest rates from 0.10 percent to 0.25 percent on December 16, says Paul Dales, an economist at Capital Economics.

New Zealand news

The service sector in New Zealand continued to shrink at a faster pace in October, according to the latest BusinessNZ survey on Monday, with a service performance index rating of 44.6.

This is less than the downward revision of 46.5 in September and moves further below the 50 line mark separating expansion from the decline.

Unlike the improvements we saw in last week’s manufacturing performance index, the current weakness in services as a whole fits into our thinking that any jump in K4 GDP will be modest, especially compared to a drop in K3, Doug Steel said senior economist of the BNZ.